The Soaring

Ok, a day before 2006 bouncedown I thought I’d give my ill-considered, off the top of my head, 2006 AFL ladder predictions. Here tis

Adelaide
St Kilda
Geelong
West Coast
Sydney
Melbourne
Collingwood
Brisbane

Fremantle
Kangaroos
Port Adelaide
Richmond
Western Bulldogs
Hawthorn
Essendon
Carlton

The rationale is this: the difference between crap and ok is the general quality and depth of players across the list. If you’ve got a list of one or three good players, a whole bunch of youngsters and the rest a bunch of cast offs, then that is a crap list. But if there is a good spread of younger and mid careers players, with some depth to say 27 players then you will be an ok side. Injuries and form might bite you, but otherwise you’ll be ok.

To go from ok to good in AFL it’s all about the midfield. I think generally a rule of thumb is that the teams with the best 8 midfields will make the finals. Now having said that, it rarely happens due to a rash of reasons such as the draw, home ground advantage / travel, injuries, form, depth, coaching etc (and it’s a subjective measure anyway). But as a means of working out who the hell will finish where I think it’s fair enough.

To go from good to great I’m using the measures of game breakers and depth. Assuming you’ve got a decent midfield, you need to have game breakers to challenge for a flag. When finals time comes around you need someone to win the big games and the tight games for you. It is the universal rule of all sport - the cream rises. It just does. My top five all have that. In addition, you need depth. You need depth to cover for injuries and most importantly to build the internal competition necessary to lift the team across the board. Again I think the top five have that.

My team by team analysis:
Adelaide - great depth across the park, excellent defense and run all over the park. These guys are versatile and play for one another.
St Kilda - should just be more talented than most teams they play. Injuries ruined last year. It’s about all that’s stopping them going further in 06.
Geelong - NAB Cup may have showed they’re ready to step up. Also very even and versatile. Query on their game breakers.
West Coast - Midfield and damaging game breakers by the dozen. Yes, Robert Walls we know, we know, the attack…
Sydney - Won it in 05, but no longer flavour of the month. No real reason they shouldn’t get back there. Very even, great forwards.
Melbourne - Probably next best of the rest. Forwards are good and midfield is probably deeper than in previous years. Always a dicey one to tip though.
Collingwood - They’ve really had two years from hell but are better than that. How some of the new blood goes and how Rocca and Fraser stand up will determine how far they get. I tip them to rise.
Brisbane - Of the rest Brisbane have (arguably) the best and most damaging midfield. Youngsters will need to stand up and will only get this high if they reclaim a home ground advantage.
Fremantle - Should be better given their big names, but are not a deep list. History says they won’t make the finals and there is nothing to indicate to me otherwise. If it clicks though they will finish higher.
Kangaroos - Not sold on the ‘Roos. Too many spare parts says it’s unlikely they will be there in September. Had a good run last year but were exposed by Port in their only Final.
Port Adelaide - This is possibly the selection most likely to make me look the fool. Still, their good are exceptional but the rest (including the middle) is all over the shop.
Richmond - See Fremantle. Youngsters have potential and Wallet will be pushing for wins, but I don’t think they have the depth or experience just yet.
Western Bulldogs - No Darcy, a fading Grant means their big men are down to empty. Were the darlings of 05, I don’t see them repeating it in 06 because their still too thin with the big men.
Hawthorn - Will be even more reliant on youngsters than last year. Good news is most of them seem to have the goods. Bad news is their still inexperienced.
Essendon - I think their another spare parts team. Midfield is hard working but average and their stars are on the fade. Can’t see where the improvement is going to come from.
Carlton - Their list is the worst of the comp. Far too thin. Far too many bit parts players and blokes that arent good enough. Will be another year or three off it yet.

Well, there it is. Now let the games begin!